NATO 2030: United for a New Era

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Analysis and Recommendations of the Reflection
 Group Appointed by the NATO Secretary General
 25 November 2020

1. Preface 3
2. Introduction and Main Findings 5
2.1. A Strategic Anchor in Uncertain Times 5
2.2. NATO’s Political Legacy: Adapting to Change 7
2.3. A Political Role Suited to a New Era 9
2.4. Vision 11
2.5. Main Findings – Moving Toward NATO 2030 12
3. Analysis: The Security and Political Environment 2010-2030 16
3.1. The Security Environment: The Return of Systemic Rivalry and Rise of Global Threats 16
3.2. The Political Environment: Strains on Allied Unity 20
4. Recommendations: Strengthening NATO’s Role, Cohesion, and Consultation 22
4.1. NATO’s Political Purpose in the 21st Century 22
4.2. Strengthening NATO’s Political Role and Tools with regard to Emerging Threats and Challenges from Every Direction 22
Russia 25
China 27
Emerging and Disruptive Technology 29
Terrorism 32
The South 34
Arms Control and Nuclear Deterrence 36
Energy Security 39
Climate and Green Defence 41
Human Security and Women, Peace, and Security 43
Pandemics and Natural Disasters 44
Hybrid and Cyber Threats 45
Outer Space 47
Strategic Communications, Public Diplomacy, and Tackling Disinformation 48
4.3. Strengthening NATO’s Political Cohesion and Unity 50
4.4. Strengthening NATO’s Political Consultation and Decision-Making 53
4.4.1. Political Consultation among Allies 53
4.4.2. Political Consultation with the European Union (EU) 55
4.4.3. Political Consultation with Partners 57
4.4.4. Political Decision-Making 60
4.4.5. Political Structure, Staffing, and Resources 62
5. Conclusion 64
Chronology 66